大v追踪

@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit. I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions. Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.

I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.

Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.

I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint. This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028. $SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO. And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

@StockSavvyShay Hope someone at X can fix this if there's enough visibility. Seems like a pretty critical bug.

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore.

@XtineFang @nikitabier X is doing everything they can so I lose my spot to Elon Musk!

@OpenAI This is the best way to get bullied in public

Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation?

@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying. Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI. Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess. $AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

Yeah that's the unfortunate reality of headline algorithm trading nowadays. Sector tanks 20-50%+ off delay news, then causes cascading margin liquidations. "Delay refuted" news comes out, people still cast doubts over it, and markets focus on misleading delay reports weeks later over fundamental growth opportunities.

@avshushka Just forwarding the Rosenblatt channel check on optical sector weakness:

I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp. Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO. If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even after $NVDA refuted it), since it's it's upside seems tied to CPO yields in specific. So it's positive, just uncertain.

@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.

$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products. - Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in. - Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations. From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future. - Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think. - "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems" - Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others. I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM. Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come. And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions... $116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

Feels like algos often miss $SIVE, after slight $LITE / optical sector recovery after CPI print. Especially bc it's trading on some random Swedish exchange, but catches up on random days. That being said it's definitely on institutional radar, especially since MS put it next to $LITE and $COHR as the three leading CPO laser companies yesterday. Just waiting for things to play out, stocks don't move in a straight line up every day.

@cragents Don't really have any strong opinion on $IBM since don't know enough about all their revenue streams. Was surprising to say the least seeing it drop 24.3% in a day tho after ER.

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

@macromonster69 Original article is in a different language, used AI to translate it to English for the usual audience

So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently: 1. Jensen Huang said no delays: - 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay. - Debunked the rumor that the next-generation flagship, Rubin Ultra, would be delayed until 2028 and said it would be on track to ship next year - Rack system optimizations, like replacing Kyber with a new design are architectural optimizations, not impacting delivery timelines. 2. On ASIC competition: no loss of market share. - Talked about how a leading frontier lab that previously relied heavily on internal ASICs has shifted nearly 50% of its compute load to Nvidia 3. On over-reliance on hyperscalers. - AI frontier labs currently contributing to ~20% of demand. - Traditional cloud providers, Nvidia provides Vera CPUs and high-speed networking - Sovereign AI

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.

@bottleneckceo 10 years from now, the flying spaghetti monster will descend from the heavens and bless every $INTC holder with a meatball. Can someone prove me wrong?

$AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include: - $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply - Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms - Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics, - $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi. But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO. A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies… If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers. This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

Just a semi recap TLDR: - $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term - $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL. - PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment - DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now). - Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think. - US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM. - $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month - Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market - $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies. - 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hynix make emergency fab investments, NAND equipment suppliers go brrrr. - Gas turbine bottleneck, 40% supply gap accompanied by staggering 5-year delivery cycles (mega-fabs need them for mass production). - AI probe card assembly has hit a severe bottleneck apparently. Which is attempted to by solved with things like Innovation Service's machines. - Nanya, 79.5% gross margins reported, memory go brr. 4x capex for capacity/advanced packaging. - CXMT's STAR Market IPO on July 16, so should bring a lot of attention to memory players in that supply chain. - KYEC $1.4B investment into US for $TSM Arizona output test facilities. Lot of these players like $AMKR and others should go brr in 2028. - $INTC CEO warned last month that helium could hinder the manufacturing costs and delivery times of AI chips - 3D NAND word lines are shifting from Tungsten to Molybdenum starting at the 375-layer node - SambaNova secured JPM for AI inference and raised $1B at an $11B valuation. - HBM prices projections to double in 2027 as $NVDA Rubin platform drives demand. - $MU provides $500 million in funding to support GlobalWafers' US manufacturing capacity - $META 'Iris' will enter mass production in September via $AVGO and TSMC and Meta aims to double computing power to 14GW by 2027. - Largan Precision has secured its first CPO FAU order, mass production slated for middle of next year (kinda indication around Foci and others). - Samsung and SK Hynix have delayed the implementation of hybrid bonding packaging technology for HBM4 apparently - Memory costs (DRAM/NAND) have reached 60% of the BOM for sub-$400 smartphones, causing a severe volume contraction. - SK Hynix successfully rasied $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR - $TSLA issued procurement guidelines requiring suppliers to reach weekly production of 1,000 units by September and double to 2,000-2,500 by year end for its 3rd gen Optimus robot. Apparently Alliance Technology and A-Link may be in this supply chain harmonic reducers and vision lenses? Kinda go through all this stuff every day, but don't wanna be a news reporter so just consolidated stuff I found interesting.

Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump. I’m getting tired looking at macro.

@softmaxedx My friend at $AMD tripped on a rock and had to spend a few hours at home. So we’ll likely see a major delay at AMD’s entire GPU program.

@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful

Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.

So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators As for humanoid volume ramps: They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032. Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps... Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like: - 15-20k 2028 - 40k-70k 2029 - 90k-140k for 2030 Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026. In terms of competitive landscape they name: - $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now) - Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders. - Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders. They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis. Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now. Then from report assumptions: - 31 actuators per Atlas - $1K per actuator in 2028 - $134K Atlas ASP, Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%. Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots. So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp. I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.

@BtMIV6TSQ572728 This is half satire. It's hard to understand nuances when Grok is translating it.

@TheWaitingGameX I'm going to learn how to trade cash-settled Salmon futures next, so I can put it in my bio.

@ANMcapital APR might be priced in. But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...

Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face for better skin. The world's female population creates a bigger structural demand than hyperscalers for memory or lasers? Should have known...

@sama Wow, gpt-5.6 sol is getting really good at writing these comebacks

@jaredisathome Strange everyone’s already taking allegations as a fact. Looks credible, but companies file lawsuits all the time to slow down competitors.

He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their competing chip and funds Cerebras competitors for inference - Works with $AAPL on Apple Intelligence? -> Create their competing devices. - Potential lack of funding? -> Sign a lot of LTAs so the entire industry lives or dies off OpenAI succeeding. Whatever he's doing is working lol.

Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.

@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: "Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. "We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis." Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity. Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward. I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.

@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.

@2147gp Yep I'm very excited for the $SIVE US listing. Majority of people can't access it on small Swedish exchanges.

Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV! It's now up an insane 16%. I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday.

Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing. Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases.

My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better. But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers. And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in most physical tasks from basketball to surgery, similar to how AI was able evolve to beat humans in almost everything academic. So down the line, I think costs to make a humanoid at scale will keep getting compressed, optimized, and compressed down to <$5k over time. While underlying technology improves to displace work over a longer term horizon.

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) - Optimus x Tesla (Internal) - Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries) Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer. If they're not already vertically integrated by one already. Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China. Curious how this trend plays out...

I blocked them since they're known for spreading disinformation. Especially after it was exposed around their short seller activity, that there were marketing accounts telling people to sell. These accounts had histories of promoting the same Asian crypto launches. - They spread defamation like saying I used AI to fabricate reports on CW laser LTAs from $AMD, despite the report coming directly from Trendforce. Then they tried to hide references to the actual source after they were proven wrong. - I didn't sell a good chunk of my $SIVE position, I own 1M+ shares (not USD) as one of the largest individual shareholders. Don't see a reason to exit my position since I'm trying to own as much as possible before 1.6T pluggables and CPO architectural inflections hit. Better not to give malicious accounts additional views.

@UNICONTSLA On the $AAOI chart, we're able to see the "Sleeping King" indicator. You can see the crown form from the chopping patterns. But once the king wakes up from their nap... chart fundamentals expect a royal decree.

The "Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle" predicted the $SIVE rally today. If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later. Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA?

Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.

It's nuanced, IMO: - $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China? - $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US. So they're probably the leader in terms of Made in America supply chains + commercialization. But can't get to China scale yet through just US supply chains. Figure is probably the other one with 12,000 target capacity, but can't comment much since their supply chain visibility isn't very public. I don't consider Hyundai/Boston Dynamics to be very American anymore so didn't include them.

"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA? I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others. But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.

$SIVE US NASDAQ listing is more for: - Fundraising (most important thing) to acquire IP + TAM expansion and make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did (eg. Cloud Light acquisition) from just selling lasers. - Also it helps bridge valuation gaps, since I see it as undervalued relative to laser peers that are all in the tens of billions. Rather than near term revenue/partnerships.

@JN9191 It's for NASDAQ dual listing to align themselves with US PCAOB standards.

Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).

@finkd Wow Zuck is both back on X and to the LLM race.

@Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery.

@KostasMoschovas Biggest surprise of the century. Institutions probably bought all the retail margin liquidations recently.

Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”

Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently) Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?

@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent. Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity. So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.

I currently hold shares in the million range, so not quite sure what’s with these accusations. Since I believe $SIVE is one of the most important laser companies in the next optical shift… and has immense TAM expansion potential with IP acquisition. Nasdaq listing is coming up… volume ramp is coming up… I think I’m fine and know what I’m holding

@MichaelMartocci Congrats, the SK Hynix + memory rise was goated. Yeah, I think the ability to stomach volatility is what separates investors from the rest.

@kapo52277 @neruda_de Agility is ~$3.9B premoney valuation, which is compelling to me as is. Not all SPACs work that way as seen with $BRUN, which is why I’m personally not waiting.

@neruda_de No, I’m personally trying to own as much % of Agility Robotics as possible right now. Since I see Humanoids is as next major theme following space/AI. Don’t think historical PTSD with bad SPAC names will sway me from owning one of the US humanoid leaders.

Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.

Let's say you have a avocado farm that's valued at $45. The avocado farm next to you gets bought for $130. And the avocado farm leader is valued at $2000. It's just a signal that your avocado farm might be relatively undervalued or where the avocado farm might be priced in the future. Not really fundamentals, it's just psychology around valuation anchoring.

@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros. I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term.

For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.

Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations.

@zjcwebster My prediction is we’re going to cut off trade with Belgium next. There goes all the chocolates.

@AlienMShroom Spain has lithium, tungsten, and other rare earths America needs. That China happens to be export controlling…The US needs all the partners it can keep.

Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate. They don't pay. Cut off all trade with Spain” Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore…

I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have. I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings. Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now across the board with many things crashing 30-60% already. Short term option traders and 2.5x margin bros were probably wiped.

@zephyr_z9 Koreans already fully liquidated a week in.

Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over” “It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit. Always an exciting time with markets.

Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given everything is crashing though.

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence). By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.

@stocks4545 This is not the first time Bloomberg crashed the markets

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing: Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others." Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex. But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.

@EidolonResearch Europe's too busy figuring out how to regulate air conditioners. I don't think people considered them in the US/China humanoid race.

Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.

Yes? If it weren't, it wouldn't be a national security threat. Cybersecurity Committee Dpt of. Homeland Security: "China's speed of advancement in humanoid robots is alarming, and the US government should formulate coordinated policies and strategies to counter Chinese firms' dominance". Singling out Unitree Robotics.

How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths. Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous... But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?

Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about: - b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM. - or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts" Or if I post a new name they draw random swiggly lines any direction to convince people to sell, then try to sell a course on top of that that. They end up wrong, but just silently ignores that fact when they draw a new swiggly line the next day to sell if they're right.

@EUlmsten wow the mythical golden egg dragon candle was spotted over the $SIVEF chart. Something big is coming...